Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
